• Financial markets declined sharply during the first quarter of 2022 because of soaring inflation, the Fed’s hawkish pivot, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While stocks had their first quarterly loss since the pandemic bear market...
The Manley Macro Memo
Stocks fell to a nine-month low as Russia invaded Ukraine, and investors worried about inflation, which surged to the highest level since January 1982. Since its January 4th all-time high, the S&P 500 declined by 14.6%, while the NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 fell by more than 20% peak to trough. We still believe that stocks offer a poor risk-reward and are in a bear market....
In January, the S&P 500 had its worst month since the pandemic crash of March 2020 because inflation surged to a forty-year high, and the Federal Reserve announced they were prepared to tighten monetary policy more aggressively if inflation persists. We believe we are on the cusp of a bear market....
Despite concerns about the new omicron variant and surging inflation, stocks rallied in December. Additionally, the Fed accelerated the pace of the taper of their Q.E. program because inflation remained broad and elevated. Although inflation surged 7% year-over-year, the S&P 500 rallied by 28.7% in 2021. We believe that much of the increase is due to a liquidity surge, not solid fundamentals....
• Uncertainty about the Omicron variant and the Fed’s hawkish pivot led to a sharp market decline that began in late November. The correction subsided in mid-December because the Omicron variant appeared to be less virulent than the Delta variant. Also, the FDA approved two at-home anti-viral drugs that can greatly reduce the risk of hospitalization....
• In September, the S&P 500 suffered its worst monthly performance since the start of the pandemic. In addition to inflation concerns, supply chain constraints, and labor shortages, investors were concerned that the regulatory crackdown in China could lead to slowing global growth and systematic risk if China’s real estate bubble burst....
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