Despite concerns about the new omicron variant and surging inflation, stocks rallied in December. Additionally, the Fed accelerated the pace of the taper of their Q.E. program because inflation remained broad and elevated. Although inflation surged 7% year-over-year, the S&P 500 rallied by 28.7% in 2021. We believe that much of the increase is due to a liquidity surge, not solid fundamentals....
The Manley Macro Memo
• Uncertainty about the Omicron variant and the Fed’s hawkish pivot led to a sharp market decline that began in late November. The correction subsided in mid-December because the Omicron variant appeared to be less virulent than the Delta variant. Also, the FDA approved two at-home anti-viral drugs that can greatly reduce the risk of hospitalization....
• In September, the S&P 500 suffered its worst monthly performance since the start of the pandemic. In addition to inflation concerns, supply chain constraints, and labor shortages, investors were concerned that the regulatory crackdown in China could lead to slowing global growth and systematic risk if China’s real estate bubble burst....
Despite a surge in new Covid cases, inflation concerns, supply chain constraints, and labor shortages, the S&P 500 reached a record high in August. The S&P 500 has advanced higher for seven consecutive months, which is its longest winning streak since January 2018....
Despite inflationary concerns and uncertainty over the rapid spread of the Delta variant, the S&P 500 rallied to another all-time high in July, is it time to take profits?...
Despite stronger than expected growth and inflation data, long-term interest rates have plunged over the past month. Many pundits believe that the sharp drop is signaling a peak in growth or pending economic weakness, likely due to the global spread of the COVID delta variant or the economic slowdown in China....
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