Investor Resources

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The Manley Macro Memo

The Election is Over and Vaccines are on the Horizon — Is it Time to Buy Stocks?

We believe that stocks offer a poor risk-reward. Despite the great uncertainty over the virus, the economy, and the election, stocks have never been more expensive because the Fed created another financial bubble by printing $3 trillion.
We believe the economy and the financial markets are vulnerable without additional stimulus to support the service economy until a vaccine is widely available. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that Congress will agree to a new stimulus bill until after the election is decided.
Once a vaccine is widely available, we expect a large rotation out of the mega-technology stocks that benefitted from the pandemic into the market’s value sectors — energy, financials, industrials, and materials. We see a tremendous long-term opportunity in owning these “beaten-up’ sectors while avoiding the over-valued, over-owned, mega-cap technology stocks and the S&P 500, which has a 23% weighting to the group.

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Congress Fails as the Virus Accelerates, yet the S&P 500 Sells at a Record Valuation?

We believe that stocks offer a poor risk-reward. Despite the great uncertainty over the virus, the economy, and the election, stocks have never been more expensive because the Fed created another financial bubble by printing $3 trillion.
We believe the economy and the financial markets are vulnerable without additional stimulus to support the service economy until a vaccine is widely available. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that Congress will agree to a new stimulus bill until after the election is decided.
Once a vaccine is widely available, we expect a large rotation out of the mega-technology stocks that benefitted from the pandemic into the market’s value sectors — energy, financials, industrials, and materials. We see a tremendous long-term opportunity in owning these “beaten-up’ sectors while avoiding the over-valued, over-owned, mega-cap technology stocks and the S&P 500, which has a 23% weighting to the group.

...
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Did the Fed Induced Bubble Burst?

We are less than two months into the worst recession since the Great Depression. More than 30 million people have lost their job, and the duration of the virus and the recession are unknowable, yet stocks are priced for perfection.

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Is Your 60/40 Portfolio Safe?

We are less than two months into the worst recession since the Great Depression. More than 30 million people have lost their job, and the duration of the virus and the recession are unknowable, yet stocks are priced for perfection.

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The Intelligent Investors Market Memo March 26, 2020

On Monday, the S&P 500 fell by 34% over the previous 23 trading days, which was the fastest 30% decline in market history. Market volatility has reached an unprecedented level, and daily price swings are among the largest in history. Last Monday, the S&P 500 dropped by 12%, which was its most significant daily decline since the 1987 crash. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied by 11%, which was its largest one day jump since 1933.

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The Manley Macro Memo