Investor Resources

Despite inflationary concerns and uncertainty over the rapid spread of the Delta variant, the S&P 500 rallied to another all-time high in July, is it time to take profits?

• Despite stronger than expected growth and inflation data, long-term interest rates have plunged over the past month. Many pundits believe that the sharp drop is signaling a peak in growth or pending economic weakness, likely due to the global spread of the COVID delta variant or the economic slowdown in China. While the growth rate may have peaked from an unsustainable level, the economy and inflation are too strong to justify a 1.20% U.S. Treasury bond. We believe that the enormous liquidity created by the global central bankers is overwhelming the fundamentals, driving yields artificially lower and giving investors false signals about the economy’s health.

Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve surprised investors by stating that the inflation surge may not be transitory. Also, they revised their 2021 economic forecast revised higher. Real GDP is expected to grow at 7.0%, and inflation was revised significantly higher to 3.4% from 2.4%. Additionally, they signaled that the QE taper debate had started, and interest rates would rise sooner than previously expected. The Fed’s hawkish pivot led to a sharp but brief market decline and a rotation out of the economically sensitive sectors of the market. Although the Fed admitted that the inflationary surge might not be transitory, they continue to print $120 billion per month to buy financial assets, and they do not expect to increase short-term interest rates until 2023. Since inflation is currently 5% and interest rates are 0%, real interest rates (interest rates minus inflation) are the lowest since 1980 (see chart below).

Stocks rallied in April because of the strong economic data and the Fed’s commitment to not remove any of their emergency monetary measures for the foreseeable future.